Russia-Ukraine War and Return Predictability of Commodity Prices

Abstract

We explored the implications of the Russia-Ukraine (RUK) crisis on return predictability of selected commodity prices in the international market. We find that the crisis has a significant impact on the returns of gas, palladium, London wheat, and United States wheat. Our findings offer robust and insightful conclusions for policymakers on the heightened effect of the war on return predictability of global commodity prices.