Impact of climate change on the frequency and intensity of forest fires: perspectives, consequences and risks

Abstract

In Russia, the year 2021 saw some of the largest forest fires in the country in decades. The area covered by fire in the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) amounted to almost 8 million hectares. The official cause was considered to be unauthorized burning of dry grass on agricultural lands. Other factors influencing the growth of the number of fires and the area of their spread should be considered. This article analyzes the impact of climate change on the frequency and severity of forest fires. The effects of climate change on forest ecosystems, the possible increase in the probability of forest fires and the amount of economic damage from the emergency situation in recent years were analyzed. The paper also presents an analysis of changes in the average monthly temperature on the territory of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) according to climate modeling data, based on which possible changes in the number of forest fires due to temperature changes were identified. Recommendations for risk reduction and adaptation to changing climatic conditions in the context of forest fires are proposed.