{"title":"Testing for galactic cosmic ray warming hypothesis using the notion of block-exogeneity","authors":"Umberto Triacca","doi":"10.1002/env.2846","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>In this article, we consider the notion of block-exogeneity and establish a characterization of it. We use this characterization to propose a procedure to test for block-exogeneity in a trivariate system. The proposed procedure has been applied to test the so-called galactic cosmic ray warming hypothesis. The galactic cosmic ray warming hypothesis suggests the existence of an indirect solar influence on Earth's climate. Our results seem to imply that this hypothesis does not hold. In particular, we find that the global temperature is block-exogenous with respect to both sunspot numbers (a measure of the solar activity) and galactic cosmic rays. This implies that the supposed indirect causal link from solar activity to temperature (through cosmic rays), postulated by the galactic cosmic ray warming hypothesis, does not appear to exist.</p>","PeriodicalId":50512,"journal":{"name":"Environmetrics","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Environmetrics","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/env.2846","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
In this article, we consider the notion of block-exogeneity and establish a characterization of it. We use this characterization to propose a procedure to test for block-exogeneity in a trivariate system. The proposed procedure has been applied to test the so-called galactic cosmic ray warming hypothesis. The galactic cosmic ray warming hypothesis suggests the existence of an indirect solar influence on Earth's climate. Our results seem to imply that this hypothesis does not hold. In particular, we find that the global temperature is block-exogenous with respect to both sunspot numbers (a measure of the solar activity) and galactic cosmic rays. This implies that the supposed indirect causal link from solar activity to temperature (through cosmic rays), postulated by the galactic cosmic ray warming hypothesis, does not appear to exist.
期刊介绍：
Environmetrics, the official journal of The International Environmetrics Society (TIES), an Association of the International Statistical Institute, is devoted to the dissemination of high-quality quantitative research in the environmental sciences.
The journal welcomes pertinent and innovative submissions from quantitative disciplines developing new statistical and mathematical techniques, methods, and theories that solve modern environmental problems. Articles must proffer substantive, new statistical or mathematical advances to answer important scientific questions in the environmental sciences, or must develop novel or enhanced statistical methodology with clear applications to environmental science. New methods should be illustrated with recent environmental data.
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