Non-probabilistic reasoning in navigating entrepreneurial uncertainty: A psychology of religious faith lens

Abstract

Uncertainty permeates the world of entrepreneurship. Yet, understanding how entrepreneurs perceive and make decisions in the face of uncertainty remains elusive. The value of Bayesian decision models with their probabilistic-based assumptions is only of limited help to entrepreneurs in solving the problem of uncertainty. This research extends the utility of non-probabilistic modes of entrepreneurial cognition as a supplementary epistemology for shedding light into the ‘black box’ of how entrepreneurs navigate unknowable futures. We conceptualize core insights, on how decision-makers make sense of, interpret, and act amidst life's deep uncertainties. Specifically, we introduce four decision heuristics entrepreneurs adopt—grounded in the shared foundations in broader conceptions of uncertainty from the psychology of religious faith—that help systematize why (a) intuitive insight, (b) generative doubt, (c) redemptive choice, and (d) transcendent faith, enhance our understanding of how elements of uncertainty throughout the venture development journey are often addressed. Implications for future research are discussed.