Modeling e-Truck adoption for sustainable transport in Jordan: A system dynamics approach

Abstract

This study has developed a model that predicts the quantity of CO₂ emissions reduced and the adoption of e-Trucks until the year 2100 in Jordan. Using system dynamics software (Powersim) and business intelligence tools (Microsoft Power BI), the most significant factors affecting three modules: environment, government, and customer were examined. Twelve scenarios were modeled during the study (three factors and four cases for each factor). The factors were marketing effectiveness, environmental awareness, and government acquisition subsidy, and their values were (0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5), (0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6), and (500, 1500, 3000, 6000 Jordanian Dinar—JOD), respectively. Under normal conditions, with a marketing effectiveness of 0.2, environmental awareness of 0.3, and a subsidy of 500 JOD, the annual sales of e-Trucks and Conventional Fuel Trucks (CFT) will break-even in 2052 in Jordan. The cumulative CO₂ emissions reduction at the same year will be 6165.213 Tons. Among the three factors, marketing effectiveness was found to have the highest impact followed by the environmental awareness and last came the acquisition subsidy. Based on our findings, it is recommended that policymakers prioritize improving marketing efforts to accelerate the shift towards e-Trucks, raise environmental awareness among consumers, and provide subsidies for acquisition of e-Trucks in Jordan. Additionally, further research is needed to incorporate other factors, such as ICT infrastructure, technology maturity and other social factors that can affect the adoption of e-Trucks. The study's originality lies in its focus on e-Trucks, a relatively underexplored area in the sustainable transport literature, especially in the context of Jordan as many other emerging nations. The practical implications include leading the switch to e-Trucks, identifying infrastructural needs, and informing legislative choices. By analyzing long-term dynamics and encouraging the deployment of e-Trucks, it seeks to lower CO₂ emissions, enhance air quality, and promote a sustainable transportation system in Jordan.