Selective reporting of placebo tests in top economics journals

IF 1.7 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

Economic Inquiry Pub Date : 2024-03-25 DOI:10.1111/ecin.13217

Anna Dreber, Magnus Johannesson, Yifan Yang

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Placebo tests provide incentives to underreport statistically significant tests, a form of reversed p-hacking. We test for such underreporting in 11 top economics journals between 2009 and 2021 based on a pre-registered analysis plan. If the null hypothesis is true in all tests, 2.5% of them should be significant at the 5% level with an effect in the same direction as the main test (and 5% in total). The actual fraction of statistically significant placebo tests with an effect in the same direction is 1.29% (95% CI [0.83, 1.63]), and the overall fraction of statistically significant placebo tests is 3.10% (95% CI [2.2, 4.0]).

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顶级经济学期刊对安慰剂试验的选择性报道

安慰剂测试会刺激人们少报具有统计意义的测试结果，这是一种反向的 "P-黑客 "行为。我们根据预先登记的分析计划，对 2009 至 2021 年间 11 种顶级经济学期刊中的此类少报现象进行了检验。如果零假设在所有检验中都成立，那么其中 2.5% 的检验应在 5%水平上显著，其影响方向与主检验相同（总计 5%）。在统计上有意义的安慰剂试验中，效果方向相同的实际比例为 1.29% (95% CI [0.83, 1.63])，在统计上有意义的安慰剂试验的总体比例为 3.10% (95% CI [2.2, 4.0])。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Economic Inquiry ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

3.80

自引率

5.60%

发文量

期刊介绍： Published since 1962, (formerly Western Economic Journal), EI is widely regarded as one of the top scholarly journals in its field. Besides containing research on all economics topic areas, a principal objective is to make each article understandable to economists who are not necessarily specialists in the article topic area. Nine Nobel laureates are among EI long list of prestigious authors.