Proyección de la carga clínica y económica de la enfermedad renal crónica entre 2022 y 2027 en España: resultados del proyecto Inside CKD

IF 2 4区医学 Q2 UROLOGY & NEPHROLOGY

Nefrologia Pub Date : 2024-11-01 DOI:10.1016/j.nefro.2024.03.002

Juan F. Navarro González , Alberto Ortiz , Ana Cebrián Cuenca , Marta Moreno Barón , Lluís Segú , Belén Pimentel , Unai Aranda , Blanca López-Chicheri , Margarita Capel , Elisenda Pomares Mallol , Christian Caudron , Juan José García Sánchez , Roberto Alcázar Arroyo

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background and objective

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a growing health problem affecting between 10% and 15% of the Spanish population. The lack of updated projections of the evolution of the disease burden hinders the development of evidence-based health policies and interventions to optimize the management of the disease and prevent its progression. The aim of this study is to project the evolution of the clinical and economic burden of CKD in Spain between 2022 and 2027.

Materials and methods

Inside CKD uses a validated microsimulation approach to project the burden of CKD. The projection is based on a virtual population according to Spanish demographics, literature, national data registries and clinical expert opinion. Costs associated with CKD management, renal replacement therapy (RRT), cardiovascular complications and arterial comorbidities were included.

Results

In Spain, an absolute increase in the prevalence of CKD of 1% (from 10.7% to 11.7%) is expected between 2022 and 2027, corresponding to an increase from 5.14 million to 5.68 million patients in 2027. However, only one third of CKD patients would be diagnosed. Of these diagnosed patients, 3.9% will require RRT in 2027, an increase of 14.7% from 2022. A total of 654,281 accumulated deaths are expected in patients with CKD diagnosed between 2022 and 2027. The economic burden of diagnosed CKD is expected to increase by 13.8% to 4.89 billion euros in 2027, representing 5.56% of total Spanish public health expenditure in 2027 (compared to 4.88% in 2022), of which 42.5% will be allocated to RRT (2.4% of public health expenditure).

Conclusions

The Inside CKD project highlights the growing clinical, economic and social burden of CKD in Spain expected by 2027. Progression to more advanced stages with the need for RRT and associated complications represent a small proportion of the total CKD population, but contribute significantly to overall costs.

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2022 年至 2027 年西班牙慢性肾脏病临床和经济负担预测：Inside CKD 项目的结果

背景和目标慢性肾脏病（CKD）是一个日益严重的健康问题，影响着西班牙 10%到 15%的人口。由于缺乏对疾病负担演变的最新预测，因此无法制定以证据为基础的卫生政策和干预措施，以优化疾病管理并防止其恶化。本研究的目的是预测 2022 年至 2027 年间西班牙慢性肾脏病的临床和经济负担的演变情况。材料和方法Inside CKD 采用经过验证的微观模拟方法来预测慢性肾脏病的负担。该预测是根据西班牙人口统计学、文献、国家数据登记和临床专家意见，以虚拟人群为基础进行的。结果预计在 2022 年至 2027 年期间，西班牙的 CKD 患病率将绝对增加 1%（从 10.7% 增加到 11.7%），相应地，2027 年的患者人数将从 514 万增加到 568 万。然而，只有三分之一的慢性肾脏病患者会被确诊。在这些确诊患者中，3.9% 的患者将在 2027 年需要接受 RRT 治疗，比 2022 年增加 14.7%。预计在 2022 年至 2027 年期间，确诊的慢性肾功能衰竭患者累计死亡人数将达到 654 281 人。预计到 2027 年，确诊的 CKD 患者的经济负担将增加 13.8%，达到 48.9 亿欧元，占 2027 年西班牙公共卫生总支出的 5.56%（2022 年为 4.88%），其中 42.5% 将用于 RRT（占公共卫生支出的 2.4%）。进展到需要 RRT 的晚期阶段以及相关并发症只占 CKD 总人口的一小部分，但却大大增加了总成本。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Nefrologia 医学-泌尿学与肾脏学

CiteScore

3.40

自引率

7.70%

发文量

148

审稿时长

47 days

期刊介绍： Nefrología is the official publication of the Spanish Society of Nephrology. The Journal publishes articles on basic or clinical research relating to nephrology, arterial hypertension, dialysis and kidney transplants. It is governed by the peer review system and all original papers are subject to internal assessment and external reviews. The journal accepts submissions of articles in English and in Spanish languages.