{"title":"Distinguishing Between Insolation‐Driven and Phase‐Locked 100‐Kyr Ice Age Scenarios Using Example Models","authors":"Kirstin Koepnick, Eli Tziperman","doi":"10.1029/2023pa004739","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Glacial‐interglacial oscillations exhibit a periodicity of approximately 100 Kyr during the late Pleistocene. Insolation variations are understood to play a vital role in these ice ages, yet their exact effect is still unknown; the 100 Kyr ice ages may be explained in two different ways. They could be purely insolation‐driven, such that ice ages are a consequence of insolation variations and would not have existed without these variations. Or, ice ages may be self‐sustained oscillations, where they would have existed even without insolation variations. We develop several observable measures that are used to differentiate between the two scenarios and can help to determine which one is more likely based on the observed proxy record. We demonstrate these analyses using two representative models. First, we find that the self‐sustained model best fits the ice volume proxy record for the full 800‐Kyr time period. Next, the same model also shows a 100 Kyr peak consistent with observations, yet the insolation‐driven model exhibits a dominant 400 Kyr spectral peak inconsistent with observations. Our third measure indicates that midpoints in ice volume during terminations do not always occur during the same phase of insolation in both observations and the self‐sustained scenario, whereas they do in the insolation‐driven scenario. While some of these results suggest that the self‐sustained ice ages are more consistent with the observed record, they rely on simple representations of the two scenarios. To draw robust conclusions, a broader class of models should be tested using this method of producing observable differences.","PeriodicalId":54239,"journal":{"name":"Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.2000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1029/2023pa004739","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Glacial‐interglacial oscillations exhibit a periodicity of approximately 100 Kyr during the late Pleistocene. Insolation variations are understood to play a vital role in these ice ages, yet their exact effect is still unknown; the 100 Kyr ice ages may be explained in two different ways. They could be purely insolation‐driven, such that ice ages are a consequence of insolation variations and would not have existed without these variations. Or, ice ages may be self‐sustained oscillations, where they would have existed even without insolation variations. We develop several observable measures that are used to differentiate between the two scenarios and can help to determine which one is more likely based on the observed proxy record. We demonstrate these analyses using two representative models. First, we find that the self‐sustained model best fits the ice volume proxy record for the full 800‐Kyr time period. Next, the same model also shows a 100 Kyr peak consistent with observations, yet the insolation‐driven model exhibits a dominant 400 Kyr spectral peak inconsistent with observations. Our third measure indicates that midpoints in ice volume during terminations do not always occur during the same phase of insolation in both observations and the self‐sustained scenario, whereas they do in the insolation‐driven scenario. While some of these results suggest that the self‐sustained ice ages are more consistent with the observed record, they rely on simple representations of the two scenarios. To draw robust conclusions, a broader class of models should be tested using this method of producing observable differences.
期刊介绍:
Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology (PALO) publishes papers dealing with records of past environments, biota and climate. Understanding of the Earth system as it was in the past requires the employment of a wide range of approaches including marine and lacustrine sedimentology and speleothems; ice sheet formation and flow; stable isotope, trace element, and organic geochemistry; paleontology and molecular paleontology; evolutionary processes; mineralization in organisms; understanding tree-ring formation; seismic stratigraphy; physical, chemical, and biological oceanography; geochemical, climate and earth system modeling, and many others. The scope of this journal is regional to global, rather than local, and includes studies of any geologic age (Precambrian to Quaternary, including modern analogs). Within this framework, papers on the following topics are to be included: chronology, stratigraphy (where relevant to correlation of paleoceanographic events), paleoreconstructions, paleoceanographic modeling, paleocirculation (deep, intermediate, and shallow), paleoclimatology (e.g., paleowinds and cryosphere history), global sediment and geochemical cycles, anoxia, sea level changes and effects, relations between biotic evolution and paleoceanography, biotic crises, paleobiology (e.g., ecology of “microfossils” used in paleoceanography), techniques and approaches in paleoceanographic inferences, and modern paleoceanographic analogs, and quantitative and integrative analysis of coupled ocean-atmosphere-biosphere processes. Paleoceanographic and Paleoclimate studies enable us to use the past in order to gain information on possible future climatic and biotic developments: the past is the key to the future, just as much and maybe more than the present is the key to the past.