Quantitative risk assessment of Haemolytic and Uremic Syndrome (HUS) from consumption of raw milk soft cheese

Abstract

The aim of this quantitative risk assessment model is to estimate the risk of Haemolytic Uremic Syndrome (HUS) caused by Shiga-toxin producing Escherichia coli (STEC) in raw milk soft cheese and explore intervention strategies to minimise this risk. Building upon previous work from literature, the model considers microbial contamination of raw milk at the farm level, as well as STEC growth and survival during cheese production, ripening and storage, along with intervention strategies in both pre- and post-harvest scenarios. It allows for the assessment of intervention steps at the farm level or during cheese production. Besides estimating the risk of HUS, it also assesses the production losses associated with interventions.