CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION THROUGH CARBON STORAGE AND PRODUCT SUBSTITUTION IN THE HUNGARIAN WOOD INDUSTRY

Abstract

In our study we estimated under two different scenarios the historic and future carbon balance of the Hungarian harvested wood product (HWP) pool using the HWP-RIAL model. We also estimated the effect of product and energy substitution and the magnitude of avoided emissions based on international substitution factors. According to our results in the period 1985–2021 the average of the HWP net emissions plus substitution effects was -3,800 kt CO2. In this period the 49% of the forest industry-related climate benefits was attributable to carbon storage in forests, while 4% was attributable to carbon storage in wood products and 47% to product and energy substitution. According to our projection the HWP net emissions plus substitution effects could reach -14,994 kt CO2 up to 2050 under an intensified domestic wood processing industry. This means that product substitution benefits could be tripled, while the net removals of the HWP pool could be 5 times higher than the historic values.