Modeling Land Cover Change Using MOLUSCE in Kahayan Tengah Forest Management Unit, Kalimantan Tengah

Jurnal Sylva Lestari Pub Date : 2024-03-12 DOI:10.23960/jsl.v12i2.865

Beni Iskandar, Saidah, Adib Ahmad Kurnia, Ahmad Jauhari, F. Zannah

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Abstract

A management unit-based land cover change analysis was examined in Kahayan Tengah Forest Management Unit (FMU) to understand past, present, and future land cover to assist forest management planning in Kahayan Tengah FMU. This study aims to model land cover change in 2011 and 2016, predict 2021, and simulate land cover in 2026 in Kahayan Tengah FMU. Modeling land cover prediction and simulation using MOLUSCE from the QGIS plugin. The results revealed that agricultural land experienced significant increase in total area during 2011–2016. Modeling potential land cover transitions in 2011 and 2016 with the Artificial Neural Network method showed a Kappa coefficient of 0.701 in the good category, and simulation of land cover in 2021 with the Cellular Automata method showed a Kappa coefficient of 0.672 in the good category. By 2026, the agricultural land will continue to increase while forest land tends to remain stable in its total area. This study managed to predict land cover in 2021 and simulated 2026 with good accuracy. Thus, this data and information can support forest management planning in Kahayan Tengah FMU. Keywords: forest management unit, Kahayan Tengah, land cover change, land cover prediction, MOLUSCE

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利用 MOLUSCE 在中加里曼丹 Kahayan Tengah 森林管理区建立土地覆盖变化模型

为了解过去、现在和未来的土地覆被情况，协助卡哈延登加森林管理单位（Kahayan Tengah FMU）的森林管理规划，研究人员在卡哈延登加森林管理单位（Kahayan Tengah FMU）进行了基于管理单位的土地覆被变化分析。本研究旨在模拟 2011 年和 2016 年的土地覆被变化，预测 2021 年的土地覆被，并模拟 2026 年的土地覆被。使用 QGIS 插件中的 MOLUSCE 对土地覆被进行建模预测和模拟。结果显示，2011-2016 年期间，农业用地的总面积大幅增加。利用人工神经网络方法对 2011 年和 2016 年潜在的土地覆被变化进行建模，结果显示 Kappa 系数为 0.701，属于良好类别；利用细胞自动机方法对 2021 年的土地覆被进行模拟，结果显示 Kappa 系数为 0.672，属于良好类别。到 2026 年，农业用地将继续增加，而林地总面积将保持稳定。这项研究成功地预测了 2021 年的土地覆盖情况，并对 2026 年进行了模拟，准确度较高。因此，这些数据和信息可为 Kahayan Tengah 森林管理单位的森林管理规划提供支持。关键词：森林管理单位、Kahayan Tengah、土地覆被变化、土地覆被预测、MOLUSCE

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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Jurnal Sylva Lestari

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