قياس محددات البطالة في العراق للمدة (2004-2021) باستخدام نموذج VAR

Duaa Kasim, Shaima Fadhil
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Abstract

The problem of unemployment is one of the most prominent and dangerous issues that many societies suffer from، regardless of their political، economic، and social systems، and their degree of economic development. It has become one of the major problems that most countries of the world are exposed to، because of its significant effects on the economic، social، and political conditions. For the country، this research aims to investigate the determinants of unemployment over the time period (2004-2021)، by identifying the most important of these determinants، as well as contributing to the economic process and eliminating part of the unemployment rates that Iraq suffers from، which represent a security and economic threat، as The research problem is represented by the continuous rise in unemployment rates. The research is based on the hypothesis that “there is an inverse relationship between economic determinants and unemployment rates.” The study reached many results، the most important of which is the existence of an inverse relationship between inflation rates، gross domestic product، public expenditures، and exchange rates. Trade and unemployment، as well as the existence of a direct relationship between the real interest rate and unemployment. The standard model has concluded that there is a long-term relationship between economic variables and unemployment rates، as well as the existence of a one-way causal relationship between government spending، gross domestic product.،and unemployment.
使用 VAR 模型衡量伊拉克失业率的决定因素(2004--2021 年
无论政治、经济、社会制度如何,无论经济发展程度如何,失业问题都是许多社会面临的最突出、最危险的问题之一。失业问题已成为世界上大多数国家面临的主要问题之一,因为它对经济、社会和政治状况产生了重大影响。对于伊拉克来说,本研究旨在调查 2004-2021 年失业率的决定因素,找出其中最重要的决定因素,促进经济进程,消除伊拉克的部分失业率,因为失业率的持续上升对安全和经济构成威胁。研究基于 "经济决定因素与失业率之间存在反向关系 "的假设。研究得出了许多结果,其中最重要的是:通货膨胀率、国内生产总值、公共开支和汇率之间存在反比关系。贸易与失业》以及实际利率与失业之间存在直接关系。标准模型认为经济变量与失业率之间存在长期关系,政府开支和国内生产总值与失业率之间存在单向因果关系。
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