Hydrological impacts of altered monsoon rain spells in the Indian Ganga basin: a century-long perspective

Amit Kumar Maurya, Somil Swarnkar, Shivendra Prakash
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Abstract

The Indian Ganga Basin (IGB) is one of the most valuable socioeconomic regions in the Indian subcontinent. The IGB supports more than half a billion people due to an abundant supply of freshwater for agro-industrial purposes, primarily through Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall contributions (~85%). Any alterations in ISM characteristics would significantly affect freshwater availability, and as a result, socioeconomic activities would be affected. Therefore, in this study, we have attempted to assess how the monsoon rain spell characteristics, i.e., peak, volume, and duration, altered historically between 1901 to 2019. We further analyzed the specific IGB regions where monsoon rain spell changes are more prominent and their hydrological implications. Our estimates reveal that short-duration high-magnitude rain spells have significantly increased across the major regions of the IGB after 1960, which implies the increased probabilities of flash flood hazards. At the same time, the rain spell volumes have been depleted across the IGB after 1960, especially in the eastern Indo-Gangetic plains and southern IGB regions, indicating increased drought frequencies. Further, Himalayan regions, i.e., upper Ganga, upper Yamuna, and upper Ghaghra, have demonstrated increasing magnitudes of rain spell peaks, volume, and duration post-1960. In addition, the continuous warming and anthropogenic alterations might further exaggerate the current situation. Thus, these inferences are helpful for river basin management strategies to deal with the extreme hydrological disasters in the IGB.
印度恒河流域季风降雨量变化的水文影响:一个世纪的视角
印度恒河流域(IGB)是印度次大陆最有价值的社会经济区域之一。印度恒河流域主要通过印度夏季季风(ISM)降雨量(约占 85%)为农工业提供丰富的淡水,养活了 5 亿多人口。印度夏季季候风特征的任何改变都会严重影响淡水供应,从而影响社会经济活动。因此,在本研究中,我们试图评估 1901 年至 2019 年间季风雨的特征(即峰值、雨量和持续时间)是如何发生历史性变化的。我们进一步分析了季风暴雨变化更为突出的特定 IGB 地区及其水文影响。我们的估计结果表明,1960 年后,IGB 主要地区的短时大雨量级明显增加,这意味着山洪灾害发生的概率增加。与此同时,1960 年后整个 IGB 地区的降雨量减少,尤其是在印度河-甘地平原东部和 IGB 南部地区,这表明干旱频率增加。此外,喜马拉雅地区,即恒河上游、亚穆纳河上游和加格拉河上游,1960 年后的降雨峰值、雨量和持续时间都在增加。此外,持续变暖和人为改变可能会进一步加剧目前的状况。因此,这些推论有助于制定流域管理战略,以应对 IGB 的极端水文灾害。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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