Application of real-time water temperature prediction system in winter for long-distance water diversion projects

Abstract

Water diversion projects in high-latitude areas often reduce the risk of ice jams in winter by reducing the water transfer flow, which might cause the waste of water transfer benefits. This paper establishes a real-time prediction system of water temperature in winter, which can predict the change in water temperature by inputting the air temperature forecast data and the current hydraulic data. Taking the middle route of the south-to-north water diversion project as the background, the model parameters calibration and system application testing at different time periods are carried out. The results show that the prediction errors of water temperature for the 1- and 7-day are relatively small, and the prediction errors of water temperature at four observation stations can be controlled within ±0.3 and ±0.6 °C, with the root mean square error (RMSE) ranging from 0.07 to 0.25 and 0.12 to 0.36, respectively. The 15-day water temperature prediction results are greatly affected by air temperature input conditions. The prediction errors for the first 7 days are relatively small, ranging from −0.59 to 0.36 °C, and the errors for the last 8 days increase as the accuracy of the air temperature forecast decreases, ranging from −2.42 to 0.22 °C.