Statistical post-processing of numerical weather prediction data using distribution-based scaling for wind energy

IF 1.5 Q4 ENERGY & FUELS

Wind Engineering Pub Date : 2024-03-22 DOI:10.1177/0309524x241238353

A. Rangaraj, Y. Srinath, K. Boopathi, R. D M, Sushanth Kumar

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The performance of numerical weather prediction models has improved dramatically recently. However, model biases remain a fundamental limitation prohibiting the direct implementation of model results. There are several ways to describe wind speed data. The Weibull and lognormal distributions are used to obtain the best-fit model for the wind speed data. This study aims to develop a statistical post-processing method based on the distribution-based scaling (DBS) approach, which scales NWP data to fit the distribution derived using recorded wind speed at that site location. The performance of the suggested method was evaluated using four different error measures. The optimal model is anticipated to have the lowest Mean Bias Error (MBE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean square Error (RMSE), and variance (s2) values. It was determined that employing a DBS strategy significantly improved the NWP by at least 75%.

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利用基于分布的风能缩放对数值天气预报数据进行统计后处理

最近，数值天气预报模式的性能有了显著提高。然而，模型偏差仍然是阻碍直接应用模型结果的根本限制因素。描述风速数据有多种方法。Weibull 分布和对数正态分布可用于获取风速数据的最佳拟合模型。本研究旨在开发一种基于分布缩放（DBS）方法的统计后处理方法，该方法可对 NWP 数据进行缩放，以拟合利用该站点位置记录的风速得出的分布。使用四种不同的误差测量方法对建议方法的性能进行了评估。预计最佳模型将具有最低的平均偏差 (MBE)、平均绝对误差 (MAE)、均方根误差 (RMSE) 和方差 (s2) 值。结果表明，采用 DBS 策略可显著改善 NWP 至少 75%。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Wind Engineering ENERGY & FUELS-

CiteScore

4.00

自引率

13.30%

发文量

期刊介绍： Having been in continuous publication since 1977, Wind Engineering is the oldest and most authoritative English language journal devoted entirely to the technology of wind energy. Under the direction of a distinguished editor and editorial board, Wind Engineering appears bimonthly with fully refereed contributions from active figures in the field, book notices, and summaries of the more interesting papers from other sources. Papers are published in Wind Engineering on: the aerodynamics of rotors and blades; machine subsystems and components; design; test programmes; power generation and transmission; measuring and recording techniques; installations and applications; and economic, environmental and legal aspects.