Predicting current and future distribution of wild edible Syzygium afromontanum (F. White) Byng. under climate change in Ethiopia

Abstract

Plant species tend to shift their geographical ranges in response to climate change. The extent to which they are sensitive to the change is less understood in the tropics. Here, we predicted the current and future distribution of Syzygium afromontanum, a highly prioritized plant that contributes nutritious and edible fruits but has a narrow ecological range in Ethiopia. The MaxEnt algorithm method was used to predict potential suitable habitats for the species in the long run. Twenty-two environmental variables were downloaded from the WorldClim database, and 47 spatially rarefied occurrence points were used. The current and two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for 2050 and 2070 were used. Model evaluation by AUC value ranges from 0.914–0.931 under all scenarios, placing the models in the excellent category. The jackknife evaluation of the 25 random test percentage entry for model calibration showed that solar radiation, and precipitation in the coldest, and driest quarters are significant predictors of the distribution model. Compared to the current, the potential distribution area of the species would be reduced by 3.21% and 3.32% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of 2050 and by 2.77% and 2.86% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of 2070, respectively. The consequence of this situation will have a long-term effect on the conservation of the species and the indigenous knowledge associated with the species. Thus, modeling plays an essential role in designing and implementing conservation policies to conserve species that have narrow ecological ranges besides being highly prioritized and socio-economically valuable plants.