Projected change in precipitation and temperature over undivided Sudan and its major cities

Abstract

This study investigates the trend in the projected rainfall and temperature over undivided Sudan and its major cities of political, trade, and agricultural significance under two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Available high-resolution datasets from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment- Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORDEX-CORE) at a resolution of 25 km along with their ensemble are considered. The study analyzes projected climate conditions, with a specific emphasis on the near future (2036–2060) and far future (2071–2095). The rainfall distribution is projected to decline across South Sudan (undivided Sudan) under RCP2.6 (RCP8.5). The projected temperature is significantly increasing while rainfall is decreasing across all cities, with these trends being more pronounced under the RCP8.5 scenario. These changes could potentially result in various climate extremes such as severe heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires, which could have significant impacts on the ecosystems, agriculture, public health and ultimately, the livelihood and socio-economic condition of the people. The findings of the study will assist the governments, local administration and town planners in formulating short-term and long-term strategies for adaptation and mitigation, aimed at reducing the impacts of climate change. The study suggests specific measures to address the extreme heat and water deficit at the local scale, hence making it a valuable policy document for addressing the changing climate in undivided Sudan.