Horizon scanning: Tools to identify emerging threats to plant health in a changing world

Abstract

In the context of risk analysis, horizon scanning activity is a necessary component of any foresight process. This applies also to the specific context of biological invasions, supported and accelerated by climate change and global trade. Today, various institutions and research centres are equipped with a set of tools and methods for early warning on emerging threats. In the case of plant pests, web signals, trade data, community science data and sentinel plants are important sources of information, then analysed and elaborated through multicriteria approaches. The scope of this paper is to provide an overview of current practices, highlighting strengths and shortcomings, and to inform future research and policy initiatives about opportunities to address global change in this field.