{"title":"Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the prognosis in children with spinal cord injuries.","authors":"Bo Wang, Liukun Xu, Pengfei Zheng, Yapeng Zhang, Wangmi Liu, Yuntao Wang, Zhiqun Zhang","doi":"10.1007/s00586-024-08208-7","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Aims: </strong>This research aims to construct and verify an accurate nomogram for forecasting the 3-, 5-, and 7-year outcomes in pediatric patients afflicted with spinal cord injury (SCI).</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Pediatric patients with SCI from multiple hospitals in China, diagnosed between Jan 2005 and Jan 2020, were incorporated into this research. Half of these patients were arbitrarily chosen for training sets, and the other half were designated for external validation sets. The Cox hazard model was employed to pinpoint potential prognosis determinants related to the American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) and Functional Independence Assessment (FIM) index. These determinants were then employed to formulate the prognostic nomogram. Subsequently, the bootstrap technique was applied to validate the derived model internally.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In total, 224 children with SCI were considered for the final evaluation, having a median monitoring duration of 68.0 months. The predictive nomogram showcased superior differentiation capabilities, yielding a refined C-index of 0.924 (95% CI: 0.883-0.965) for the training cohort and a C-index of 0.863 (95% CI: 0.735-0.933) for the external verification group. Additionally, when applying the aforementioned model to prognostic predictions as classified by the FIM, it demonstrated a high predictive value with a C-index of 0.908 (95% CI: 0.863-0.953). Moreover, the calibration diagrams indicated a consistent match between the projected and genuine ASIA outcomes across both sets.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>The crafted and verified prognostic nomogram emerges as a dependable instrument to foresee the 3-, 5-, and 7-year ASIA and FIM outcomes for children suffering from SCI.</p>","PeriodicalId":12323,"journal":{"name":"European Spine Journal","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"European Spine Journal","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00586-024-08208-7","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/3/20 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"CLINICAL NEUROLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Aims: This research aims to construct and verify an accurate nomogram for forecasting the 3-, 5-, and 7-year outcomes in pediatric patients afflicted with spinal cord injury (SCI).
Methods: Pediatric patients with SCI from multiple hospitals in China, diagnosed between Jan 2005 and Jan 2020, were incorporated into this research. Half of these patients were arbitrarily chosen for training sets, and the other half were designated for external validation sets. The Cox hazard model was employed to pinpoint potential prognosis determinants related to the American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) and Functional Independence Assessment (FIM) index. These determinants were then employed to formulate the prognostic nomogram. Subsequently, the bootstrap technique was applied to validate the derived model internally.
Results: In total, 224 children with SCI were considered for the final evaluation, having a median monitoring duration of 68.0 months. The predictive nomogram showcased superior differentiation capabilities, yielding a refined C-index of 0.924 (95% CI: 0.883-0.965) for the training cohort and a C-index of 0.863 (95% CI: 0.735-0.933) for the external verification group. Additionally, when applying the aforementioned model to prognostic predictions as classified by the FIM, it demonstrated a high predictive value with a C-index of 0.908 (95% CI: 0.863-0.953). Moreover, the calibration diagrams indicated a consistent match between the projected and genuine ASIA outcomes across both sets.
Conclusion: The crafted and verified prognostic nomogram emerges as a dependable instrument to foresee the 3-, 5-, and 7-year ASIA and FIM outcomes for children suffering from SCI.
期刊介绍:
"European Spine Journal" is a publication founded in response to the increasing trend toward specialization in spinal surgery and spinal pathology in general. The Journal is devoted to all spine related disciplines, including functional and surgical anatomy of the spine, biomechanics and pathophysiology, diagnostic procedures, and neurology, surgery and outcomes. The aim of "European Spine Journal" is to support the further development of highly innovative spine treatments including but not restricted to surgery and to provide an integrated and balanced view of diagnostic, research and treatment procedures as well as outcomes that will enhance effective collaboration among specialists worldwide. The “European Spine Journal” also participates in education by means of videos, interactive meetings and the endorsement of educative efforts.
Official publication of EUROSPINE, The Spine Society of Europe