{"title":"The impact of shocks and policies on debt-to-GDP ratio dynamics: a multisectoral approach","authors":"Stefano Deriu, Marcello Signorelli, Claudio Socci, Rosita Pretaroli, Francesca Severini, Ludovica Almonti","doi":"10.1007/s40888-024-00330-5","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The dynamics of debt-to-GDP ratio is one of the major elements scrutinized by policymakers, especially in the present context characterized by the sequence of global financial crises, the Covid-19 pandemic and, more recently, armed conflicts in Europe. Such events call for greater public support to prevent economic collapse, raising questions about the sustainability of the sovereign debt. In this paper, we investigate the impact of selected shocks and policies on the debt-to-GDP ratio dynamics by adopting a disaggregated multi-sectoral Computable General Equilibrium model calibrated on the Social Accounting Matrix for Italy. Particularly, according to several scenarios, a rise in energy prices and a drop in exports are considered jointly with budget policies, regarding the expansion of public investment and alternative monetary policies, aimed at sustaining the economies from different perspectives. The impact of these scenarios is discussed in terms of changes in the main macroeconomic variables and dynamics of the debt-to-GDP ratio.</p>","PeriodicalId":44858,"journal":{"name":"Economia Politica","volume":"100 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economia Politica","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s40888-024-00330-5","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
The dynamics of debt-to-GDP ratio is one of the major elements scrutinized by policymakers, especially in the present context characterized by the sequence of global financial crises, the Covid-19 pandemic and, more recently, armed conflicts in Europe. Such events call for greater public support to prevent economic collapse, raising questions about the sustainability of the sovereign debt. In this paper, we investigate the impact of selected shocks and policies on the debt-to-GDP ratio dynamics by adopting a disaggregated multi-sectoral Computable General Equilibrium model calibrated on the Social Accounting Matrix for Italy. Particularly, according to several scenarios, a rise in energy prices and a drop in exports are considered jointly with budget policies, regarding the expansion of public investment and alternative monetary policies, aimed at sustaining the economies from different perspectives. The impact of these scenarios is discussed in terms of changes in the main macroeconomic variables and dynamics of the debt-to-GDP ratio.
期刊介绍：
This journal publishes peer-reviewed articles that link theory and analysis in political economy, promoting a deeper understanding of economic realities and more effective courses of policy action. Established in 1984, the journal has kept pace with the times in disseminating high-quality and influential research aimed at establishing fruitful links between theories, approaches and institutions. With this relaunch (which combines Springer’s worldwide scientific scope with the Italian cultural roots of il Mulino and Fondazione Edison, whose research has been published by the two mentioned publishers for many years), the journal further reinforces its position in the European and international economic debate and scientific community. Furthermore, this move increases its pluralistic attention to the role that – at the micro, sectoral, and macro level – institutions and innovation play in the unfolding of economic change at different stages of development.
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