A Markov Chain-Based Group Consensus Method with Unknown Parameters

IF 3.6 4区 管理学 Q2 MANAGEMENT
Chao Fu, Wenjun Chang
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Group consensus (GC) is important for generating a group solution satisfactory or acceptable to most decision-makers in a group. Its convergency usually depends on several rounds of iterations and becomes more difficult with unknown parameters because GC is usually associated with parameters. To address the GC with unknown parameters, this paper proposes a Markov chain-based GC method, in which criterion weights and expert weights are considered as parameters. Given the interval-valued assessments of decision-makers, the GC at the alternative and global levels is defined. Based on the Markov chain, a two-hierarchical randomization algorithm is designed with unknown criterion weights to determine the transition probability matrix used to generate the stable GC. To accelerate the stable GC’s convergency, criteria significantly contributing negatives to the stable GC are identified and suggestions on helping renew decision-makers’ assessments on the identified criteria are provided. On the condition that the stable GC is definitely satisfied, a GC-based two-hierarchical randomization algorithm is designed based on the Markov chain to determine the transition probability matrix for generating the stable ranking value distribution of each alternative. The proposed method is employed to analyze a development mode selection problem. It is compared with the stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis and simple additive weighting methods based on the problem by calculation and principle.

Abstract Image

基于马尔可夫链的未知参数群体共识法
群体共识(GC)对于产生令群体中大多数决策者满意或可接受的群体解决方案非常重要。其收敛性通常取决于几轮迭代,而且由于 GC 通常与参数相关,因此在参数未知的情况下变得更加困难。为了解决参数未知的 GC 问题,本文提出了一种基于马尔可夫链的 GC 方法,其中标准权重和专家权重被视为参数。给定决策者的区间值评估,定义备选方案和全局层面的 GC。在马尔可夫链的基础上,设计了一种双层次随机化算法,利用未知的标准权重来确定用于生成稳定 GC 的过渡概率矩阵。为了加快稳定 GC 的收敛速度,确定了对稳定 GC 有重大负面影响的标准,并提出了帮助决策者更新对所确定标准的评估的建议。在肯定满足稳定 GC 的条件下,设计了一种基于 GC 的双层次随机化算法,该算法基于马尔可夫链来确定过渡概率矩阵,以生成每个备选方案的稳定排序值分布。所提出的方法被用于分析开发模式选择问题。通过计算和原理,将其与基于该问题的随机多标准可接受性分析法和简单加权法进行了比较。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.70
自引率
6.70%
发文量
32
期刊介绍: The idea underlying the journal, Group Decision and Negotiation, emerges from evolving, unifying approaches to group decision and negotiation processes. These processes are complex and self-organizing involving multiplayer, multicriteria, ill-structured, evolving, dynamic problems. Approaches include (1) computer group decision and negotiation support systems (GDNSS), (2) artificial intelligence and management science, (3) applied game theory, experiment and social choice, and (4) cognitive/behavioral sciences in group decision and negotiation. A number of research studies combine two or more of these fields. The journal provides a publication vehicle for theoretical and empirical research, and real-world applications and case studies. In defining the domain of group decision and negotiation, the term `group'' is interpreted to comprise all multiplayer contexts. Thus, organizational decision support systems providing organization-wide support are included. Group decision and negotiation refers to the whole process or flow of activities relevant to group decision and negotiation, not only to the final choice itself, e.g. scanning, communication and information sharing, problem definition (representation) and evolution, alternative generation and social-emotional interaction. Descriptive, normative and design viewpoints are of interest. Thus, Group Decision and Negotiation deals broadly with relation and coordination in group processes. Areas of application include intraorganizational coordination (as in operations management and integrated design, production, finance, marketing and distribution, e.g. as in new products and global coordination), computer supported collaborative work, labor-management negotiations, interorganizational negotiations, (business, government and nonprofits -- e.g. joint ventures), international (intercultural) negotiations, environmental negotiations, etc. The journal also covers developments of software f or group decision and negotiation.
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