Exploring spatial non-stationarity of near-miss ship collisions from AIS data under the influence of sea fog using geographically weighted regression: A case study in the Bohai Sea, China

Abstract

Sea fog is a disastrous weather phenomenon, posing a risk to the safety of maritime transportation. Dense sea fogs reduce visibility at sea and have frequently caused ship collisions. This study used a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model to explore the spatial non-stationarity of near-miss collision risk, as detected by a vessel conflict ranking operator (VCRO) model from automatic identification system (AIS) data under the influence of sea fog in the Bohai Sea. Sea fog was identified by a machine learning method that was derived from Himawari-8 satellite data. The spatial distributions of near-miss collision risk, sea fog, and the parameters of GWR were mapped. The results showed that sea fog and near-miss collision risk have specific spatial distribution patterns in the Bohai Sea, in which near-miss collision risk in the fog season is significantly higher than that outside the fog season, especially in the northeast (the sea area near Yingkou Port and Bayuquan Port) and the southeast (the sea area near Yantai Port). GWR outputs further indicated a significant correlation between near-miss collision risk and sea fog in fog season, with higher R-squared (0.890 in fog season, 2018), than outside the fog season (0.723 in non-fog season, 2018). GWR results revealed spatial non-stationarity in the relationships between-near miss collision risk and sea fog and that the significance of these relationships varied locally. Dividing the specific navigation area made it possible to verify that sea fog has a positive impact on near-miss collision risk.