Does future tuna landing stock meet the target? Forecasting tuna landing in Malaysia using seasonal ARIMA model

IF 1.9 Q2 ECONOMICS
Aslina Nasir, Yeny Nadira Kamaruzzaman
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Purpose

This study was conducted to forecast the monthly number of tuna landings between 2023 and 2030 and determine whether the estimated number meets the government’s target.

Design/methodology/approach

The ARIMA and seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) models were employed for time series forecasting of tuna landings from the Malaysian Department of Fisheries. The best ARIMA (p, d, q) and SARIMA(p, d, q) (P, D, Q)12 model for forecasting were determined based on model identification, estimation and diagnostics.

Findings

SARIMA(1, 0, 1) (1, 1, 0)12 was found to be the best model for forecasting tuna landings in Malaysia. The result showed that the fluctuation of monthly tuna landings between 2023 and 2030, however, did not achieve the target.

Research limitations/implications

This study provides preliminary ideas and insight into whether the government’s target for fish landing stocks can be met. Impactful results may guide the government in the future as it plans to improve the insufficient supply of tuna.

Practical implications

The outcome of this study could raise awareness among the government and industry about how to improve efficient strategies. It is to ensure the future tuna landing meets the targets, including increasing private investment, improving human capital in catch and processing, and strengthening the system and technology development in the tuna industry.

Originality/value

This paper is important to predict the trend of monthly tuna landing stock in the next eight years, from 2023 to 2030, and whether it can achieve the government’s target of 150,000 metric tonnes.

未来金枪鱼上岸量是否达到目标?使用季节性 ARIMA 模型预测马来西亚金枪鱼上岸量
本研究旨在预测 2023 年至 2030 年期间金枪鱼上岸量的月度数量,并确定估计数量是否符合政府目标。根据模型识别、估计和诊断,确定了用于预测的最佳 ARIMA (p, d, q) 模型和 SARIMA(p, d, q) (P, D, Q)12 模型。结果表明,2023 年至 2030 年期间每月金枪鱼上岸量的波动并未达到目标。研究局限性/影响本研究为政府能否实现鱼类上岸量目标提供了初步思路和见解。本研究的结果可提高政府和行业对如何改进高效战略的认识。原创性/价值本文对于预测未来八年(2023 年至 2030 年)每月金枪鱼上岸量的趋势,以及能否实现政府提出的 15 万公吨的目标具有重要意义。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.20
自引率
5.30%
发文量
98
期刊介绍: The International Journal of Social Economics publishes original and peer-reviewed theoretical and empirical research in the field of social economics. Its focus is on the examination and analysis of the interaction between economic activity, individuals and communities. Social economics focuses on the relationship between social action and economies, and examines how social and ethical norms influence the behaviour of economic agents. It is inescapably normative and focuses on needs, rather than wants or preferences, and considers the wellbeing of individuals in communities: it accepts the possibility of a common good rather than conceiving of communities as merely aggregates of individual preferences and the problems of economics as coordinating those preferences. Therefore, contributions are invited which analyse and discuss well-being, welfare, the nature of the good society, governance and social policy, social and economic justice, social and individual economic motivation, and the associated normative and ethical implications of these as they express themselves in, for example, issues concerning the environment, labour and work, education, the role of families and women, inequality and poverty, health and human development.
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