Radon as a possible link between peak spring tides and lemming cycles

Abstract

There is still no consensus regarding the ultimate cause of the famous 3–4-year population cycles of lemmings. According to the plant stress hypothesis, herbivore population peaks are caused by stress factors that force plants to reallocate stored defensive proteins to transportable and easily digestible N-compounds. One possible plant stress factor is ionization caused by exhalation of the radioactive noble gas radon, which is enhanced after spring tides, i.e., tides at new or full Moon. I hypothesized that increased ionization caused by radon accumulation in the subnivean space after peak spring tides, which occur close to perihelion (31 December–05 January, when the Earth–Sun distance is shortest), and at 3.8-year intervals, results in increased protein digestibility of mosses, which are important food for lemmings. Population outbreaks of Norway lemming Lemmus lemmus occurred two years after peak spring tides during 1871–1910, when also perigee (the time when the Earth–Moon distance is shortest) coincided with spring tides and perihelion. Thereafter this relationship weakened, and lemming peaks became less pronounced and more related to plant seed indices. As we have now entered a new 30-year period with coincidence of spring tide, perihelion and perigee, I predict more regular and pronounced lemming outbreaks in the next decades, unless radon accumulation is prevented by frequent lack of a stable snow cover due to global warming.