Impact of Climate Change on the Performance of Household-Scale Photovoltaic Systems

Abstract

The objective of this article was to investigate the impacts of climate change on photovoltaic systems among renewable energies by the end of the 21st century. One hypothesis posited that due to decreased cloud cover as a result of changing climate, the geographical region under examination would receive more solar irradiation—usable by photovoltaic panels—which would in turn increase the annual electrical energy production of these systems. Another hypothesis suggested that the average temperature increase, associated with changing climate conditions, would detrimentally affect the efficiency of electricity production in photovoltaic systems. The study was based on the simulation of a household-scale photovoltaic model. This simulation calculated the system's performance on an hourly basis depending on inputs and summed these to produce an annual value. Input values were derived from climate scenario databases. These variables included global horizontal irradiance, direct horizontal irradiance, temperature, and wind speed. The output was the aforementioned quantity of annual electrical energy production. An analysis occurred between the annual average global horizontal irradiance and the annual average air temperature in relation to the quantities of annual electrical energy production. Pearson and partial correlation examinations among the variables demonstrated that unfavorable scenarios resulted in reduced efficiency of photovoltaic electrical energy production, primarily due to rising temperatures. Among other contributions, this article can support research into the active cooling of photovoltaic systems and the examination of their viability to mitigate efficiency losses caused by current and future temperature increases. Doi: 10.28991/HIJ-2024-05-01-01 Full Text: PDF