{"title":"Dynamical behavior of a stochastic COVID-19 model with two Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes and saturated incidence rates","authors":"Xiaoyu Li, Zhiming Li","doi":"10.1142/s1793524523501085","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>According to the transmission characteristics of COVID-19, this paper proposes a stochastic SAIRS epidemic model with two mean reversion Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes and saturated incidence rates. We first prove the existence and uniqueness of the global solution in the stochastic model. Using several suitable Lyapunov methods, we then derive the extinction and persistence of COVID-19 under certain conditions. Further, stationary distribution and ergodic properties are obtained. Moreover, we obtain the probability density function of the stochastic model around the equilibrium. Numerical simulations illustrate our theoretical results and the effect of essential parameters. Finally, we apply the model to investigate the latest outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic in Guangzhou city, China.</p>","PeriodicalId":49273,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Biomathematics","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Biomathematics","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793524523501085","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"MATHEMATICAL & COMPUTATIONAL BIOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
According to the transmission characteristics of COVID-19, this paper proposes a stochastic SAIRS epidemic model with two mean reversion Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes and saturated incidence rates. We first prove the existence and uniqueness of the global solution in the stochastic model. Using several suitable Lyapunov methods, we then derive the extinction and persistence of COVID-19 under certain conditions. Further, stationary distribution and ergodic properties are obtained. Moreover, we obtain the probability density function of the stochastic model around the equilibrium. Numerical simulations illustrate our theoretical results and the effect of essential parameters. Finally, we apply the model to investigate the latest outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic in Guangzhou city, China.
期刊介绍：
The goal of this journal is to present the latest achievements in biomathematics, facilitate international academic exchanges and promote the development of biomathematics. Its research fields include mathematical ecology, infectious disease dynamical system, biostatistics and bioinformatics.
Only original papers will be considered. Submission of a manuscript indicates a tacit understanding that the paper is not actively under consideration for publication with other journals. As submission and reviewing processes are handled electronically whenever possible, the journal promises rapid publication of articles.
The International Journal of Biomathematics is published bimonthly.
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