Density and abundance estimation of unmarked ungulates using camera traps in the Mudumu National Park, Namibia

Abstract

Density and abundance estimates are critical to effective wildlife management and are essential for monitoring population trends and setting effective quotas for harvesting. Management of roan (Hippotragus equinus) and sable (H. niger) antelopes in Mudumu National Park (MNP), Namibia, is challenging because they are elusive, naturally unmarked, and believed to occur at low densities. The species are threatened by habitat fragmentation, human population growth, and illegal hunting, and reliable density and abundance estimates have not been quantified, hampering management and conservation plans. Our objective was to estimate roan and sable densities and abundances using the time in front of the camera model (TIFC) and the Poisson-binomial N-mixture model (PB), respectively. We also evaluated the effects of environmental and ecological variables on roan and sable abundance. We used data from two camera trap surveys conducted between March and September 2021 in the MNP. Results showed that the TIFC model provided low-density estimates of 1.62 (95% CI 1.61–1.64) roans/km² and 2.46 (95% CI 2.42–2.50) sables/km², consistent with trends reported in Africa where these species occur at low densities. In addition, the total abundance of roans and sables in the MNP from the PB model were 57 and 242, respectively. Higher roan abundance occurred in sites with higher grass cover. This study provides the first accurate camera trap-derived density and abundance estimates for roan and sable in the MNP, which will be critical for developing comprehensive conservation programs and strategies that are likely to reduce the risk of extinction for both species.