The impact of energy prices on inflation and economic growth in Mozambique: A wavelet approach and OLS estimator

IF 1.6 4区经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS

SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2024-03-06 DOI:10.1111/saje.12373

Gilmar Fernando Dias da Conceição

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The paper is using the Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) and the OLS estimator to examine the relationship between energy prices (coal and gas), inflation and economic growth in Mozambique. Coal and gas are the primary commodity and source of revenue for the country. The research uses quarterly data from 2001 to 2022. Among other results, we found evidence of high coherence between macroeconomic variables (inflation and real GDP growth rate) and energy prices (thermal coal and natural gas prices) only for the frequency intervals between 1.5 and 4 years (short term). The results hold even after controlling for the real GDP growth and exchange rate; we concluded that only in the short term (1.5–4 years), there is high coherence between energy prices and inflation in the time interval between 2004 and 2012. This finding indicates no relation between energy prices, inflation and economic growth in Mozambique. Furthermore, the OLS estimates substantiate the wavelet result, showing no impact. In this context, we can conclude that there is probably a ‘Dutch disease’ or ‘resource curse’ that negates the positive effects of exploiting these resources on short‐ and long‐term economic growth.

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能源价格对莫桑比克通货膨胀和经济增长的影响：小波方法和 OLS 估计器

本文采用连续小波变换（CWT）和 OLS 估计法研究莫桑比克能源价格（煤炭和天然气）、通货膨胀和经济增长之间的关系。煤炭和天然气是该国的主要商品和收入来源。研究使用的是 2001 年至 2022 年的季度数据。除其他结果外，我们还发现了宏观经济变量（通货膨胀率和实际 GDP 增长率）与能源价格（动力煤和天然气价格）之间高度一致性的证据，但仅限于 1.5 至 4 年的频率区间（短期）。即使在控制了实际 GDP 增长率和汇率之后，结果仍然成立；我们得出结论，在 2004 年至 2012 年的时间区间内，只有在短期（1.5 年至 4 年），能源价格与通货膨胀之间存在高度一致性。这一结论表明，莫桑比克的能源价格、通货膨胀和经济增长之间没有关系。此外，OLS 估计值证实了小波结果，显示没有影响。在这种情况下，我们可以得出结论，可能存在 "荷兰病 "或 "资源诅咒"，抵消了开发这些资源对短期和长期经济增长的积极影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

SOUTH AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

2.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

期刊介绍： The South African Journal of Economics (SAJE) has a long and distinguished history, ranking amongst the oldest generalist journals in economics. In terms of editorial focus, the journal remains a generalist journal covering all fields in economics, but with a particular focus on developmental and African contexts. Toward this end, the editorial policy of the SAJE emphasizes scholarly work on developing countries, with African and Southern African development challenges receiving particular attention. While the SAJE remains a generalist journal, it encourages empirical work on developing and African economies. Importantly the focus is on both theoretical developments and methodological innovations that reflect developing country and African contexts and the policy challenges they pose. The objective of the journal is to be the premier vehicle for the publication of the most innovative work on development country and particularly African economic problems. It aims to be the target journal of choice not only for scholars located in Southern Africa, but of any scholar interested in the analysis of development challenges and their African applications. Clear theoretical foundations to work published should be a hallmark of the journal, and innovation in both theory and empirics appropriate to developing country and the African contexts are encouraged. In terms of submissions, the journal invites submissions primarily of original research articles, as well as survey articles and book reviews relevant to its context. In the case of both survey articles and book reviews, authors should note that a key minimum requirement is a critical reflection on the broader context of the existing literature.