{"title":"How much does mobility matter for value-added tax revenue? Cross-country evidence around COVID-19","authors":"Lucas Rosso, Rodrigo Wagner","doi":"10.1007/s10797-023-09821-w","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This paper studies to what extent mobility reductions and confinement measures impact value-added tax (VAT) collection, which is an increasingly important type of fiscal revenue around the world. Using evidence across twenty nations and over time, we measure these effects around the COVID-19 Pandemic. For that, we benefit from the novel IDB-CIAT <i>monthly</i> dataset on aggregate VAT revenues (2019–2020), combining it with both mobility-restriction policies and mobility outcomes. On average, monthly VAT revenues fell up to 30% around the event of the largest drop in mobility for each country. We also estimate mobility elasticities of VAT revenue. Mobility-restriction policies rising by 10% were associated with drops in VAT of 1.4%, while a 10% drop in actual mobility decreased VAT revenues by 3%. Furthermore, we show both elasticities were significantly smaller in the last quarter of 2020. Beyond the pandemic, results matter as a benchmark for fiscal and macroeconomic variables under large disruptions.</p>","PeriodicalId":47518,"journal":{"name":"International Tax and Public Finance","volume":"123 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Tax and Public Finance","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-023-09821-w","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This paper studies to what extent mobility reductions and confinement measures impact value-added tax (VAT) collection, which is an increasingly important type of fiscal revenue around the world. Using evidence across twenty nations and over time, we measure these effects around the COVID-19 Pandemic. For that, we benefit from the novel IDB-CIAT monthly dataset on aggregate VAT revenues (2019–2020), combining it with both mobility-restriction policies and mobility outcomes. On average, monthly VAT revenues fell up to 30% around the event of the largest drop in mobility for each country. We also estimate mobility elasticities of VAT revenue. Mobility-restriction policies rising by 10% were associated with drops in VAT of 1.4%, while a 10% drop in actual mobility decreased VAT revenues by 3%. Furthermore, we show both elasticities were significantly smaller in the last quarter of 2020. Beyond the pandemic, results matter as a benchmark for fiscal and macroeconomic variables under large disruptions.
期刊介绍：
INTERNATIONAL TAX AND PUBLIC FINANCE publishes outstanding original research, both theoretical and empirical, in all areas of public economics. While the journal has a historical strength in open economy, international, and interjurisdictional issues, we actively encourage high-quality submissions from the breadth of public economics.The special Policy Watch section is designed to facilitate communication between the academic and public policy spheres. This section includes timely, policy-oriented discussions. The goal is to provide a two-way forum in which academic researchers gain insight into current policy priorities and policy-makers can access academic advances in a practical way. INTERNATIONAL TAX AND PUBLIC FINANCE is peer reviewed and published in one volume per year, consisting of six issues, one of which contains papers presented at the annual congress of the International Institute of Public Finance (refereed in the usual way). Officially cited as: Int Tax Public Finance
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