Continuing long-term expansion of low-oxygen conditions in the Eastern Gulf of Finland

Abstract

To develop an oxygen indicator for the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland (EGOF), a dataset covering 1900–2021 was compiled. The analysis revealed a long-term declining trend in dissolved oxygen concentrations in the EGOF deep layer of 0.022 mg L^–1 a^–1 and multi-decadal variations associated with the observed changes in hydrographic conditions. About 27% of the decline in oxygen concentrations for 1900–2021 and 40% for 1990–2021 can be explained by the decrease in solubility due to the temperature increase and changes in hydrographic conditions. The water volume and bottom area under low oxygen conditions in 2016–2021, characterized by dissolved oxygen concentrations <= 6 mg L^–1, have increased, compared to the selected reference period with almost no human impact in the 1920s–1950s, from 9.8 km³ to 78.0 km³ (from 2.6% to 20.9% of the EGOF total volume) and from 1190 km² to 4950 km² (from 13.4% to 56.0% of the EGOF total area), respectively. The environmental status of the EGOF was assessed as not good based on the introduced oxygen indicator. We conclude that, in the long-term, low oxygen conditions have expanded mostly due to the excess load and accumulation of nutrients in the system and temperature-related changes in biogeochemical processes and fluxes. However, on a decadal scale, changes in hydrographic conditions, i.e. stratification and mixing, can significantly impact the sub-surface oxygen conditions in the EGOF and similar estuarine basins.