The Effect of Wildfires on Mortgage Pricing: Evidence from Portugal

Laura Götz, Ferdinand Mager, Joachim Zietz
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Abstract

In 2017, parts of Portugal experienced unprecedented wildfires. We use these as a natural experiment to examine the extent to which banks operating in Portugal accounted for this exogenous environmental shock in their mortgage origination conditions. We employ a diff-in-diff framework on granular securitized mortgage data, which have not been used to explore the impact of natural disasters. Our results show that banks reacted to the wildfire disaster by charging a premium on interest margins. This premium is less visible in areas close to the wildfires than in wider geographical areas around the fires. We find the risk premium to be most pronounced for borrowers with lower incomes. For this group, the risk premium amounts to 22 bps compared to 13 bps for the average borrower.

Abstract Image

野火对抵押贷款定价的影响:葡萄牙的证据
2017 年,葡萄牙部分地区发生了前所未有的野火。我们将其作为一个自然实验,考察在葡萄牙经营的银行在其抵押贷款发放条件中考虑这一外生环境冲击的程度。我们在颗粒化证券化抵押贷款数据上采用了差异中的差异框架,该框架尚未被用于探讨自然灾害的影响。我们的研究结果表明,银行对野火灾害的反应是收取利差溢价。这种溢价在靠近野火的地区比在野火周围更广泛的地区更不明显。我们发现,风险溢价对收入较低的借款人最为明显。该群体的风险溢价达到 22 个基点,而普通借款人的风险溢价为 13 个基点。
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