{"title":"A real-time regional accounts database for Germany with applications to GDP revisions and nowcasting","authors":"","doi":"10.1007/s00181-024-02566-3","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<h3>Abstract</h3> <p>Accurate real-time macroeconomic data are essential for policy-making and economic nowcasting. The rising interest in analyses at the sub-national level cannot be served as such data are currently not available. In this paper, I introduce a real-time database for German regional economic accounts. The database contains real-time information for nine macroeconomic aggregates and the 16 German states. I conduct both a revision analysis and a nowcasting experiment for real gross domestic product. By pooling the states together, the first official estimates show no systematic revision errors. The pooling, however, suppresses the revision characteristics of single states. For half of the 16 German states I find that the first estimates are no optimal predictions, thus, leaving room for improvements in the future. The real-time nowcasts for real gross domestic product growth based on a mixed-frequency vector autoregression are very accurate and beat several benchmark models. More regional data would help to better inform the model, thereby increasing its nowcast performance even further.</p>","PeriodicalId":11642,"journal":{"name":"Empirical Economics","volume":"32 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Empirical Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-024-02566-3","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Accurate real-time macroeconomic data are essential for policy-making and economic nowcasting. The rising interest in analyses at the sub-national level cannot be served as such data are currently not available. In this paper, I introduce a real-time database for German regional economic accounts. The database contains real-time information for nine macroeconomic aggregates and the 16 German states. I conduct both a revision analysis and a nowcasting experiment for real gross domestic product. By pooling the states together, the first official estimates show no systematic revision errors. The pooling, however, suppresses the revision characteristics of single states. For half of the 16 German states I find that the first estimates are no optimal predictions, thus, leaving room for improvements in the future. The real-time nowcasts for real gross domestic product growth based on a mixed-frequency vector autoregression are very accurate and beat several benchmark models. More regional data would help to better inform the model, thereby increasing its nowcast performance even further.
期刊介绍：
Empirical Economics publishes high quality papers using econometric or statistical methods to fill the gap between economic theory and observed data. Papers explore such topics as estimation of established relationships between economic variables, testing of hypotheses derived from economic theory, treatment effect estimation, policy evaluation, simulation, forecasting, as well as econometric methods and measurement. Empirical Economics emphasizes the replicability of empirical results. Replication studies of important results in the literature - both positive and negative results - may be published as short papers in Empirical Economics. Authors of all accepted papers and replications are required to submit all data and codes prior to publication (for more details, see: Instructions for Authors).The journal follows a single blind review procedure. In order to ensure the high quality of the journal and an efficient editorial process, a substantial number of submissions that have very poor chances of receiving positive reviews are routinely rejected without sending the papers for review.Officially cited as: Empir Econ
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