Hydrologic Response to Future Climate Change in the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6

Abstract

Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), the Dulong-Irrawaddy (Ayeyarwady) River, an international river among China, India and Myanmar, plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway. However, the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerability to climate change impacts. This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin (DIRB) by using a physical-based hydrologic model. We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for the near (2025–2049), mid (2050–2074), and far future (2075–2099). The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow, demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a validation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.72. Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET), with precipitation increasing by 11.3% and 26.1%, and PET increasing by 3.2% and 4.9%, respectively, by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations, notably at the basin’s outlet (Pyay station) compared to the baseline period (with an increase of 16.1% and 37.0% at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively). Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an increase in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%–48.9% and 22.5%–76.3% under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%–12.6% and 2.8%–33.3%, respectively. Moreover, the magnitude and frequency of flood events are predicted to escalate, potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly. This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers.