Hydrological assessment of the Gundlakamma sub-basin through SWAT modeling: integration of land use land cover (LULC) and climate changes

Abstract

Gundlakamma sub-basin faces challenges with increasing water demand and climate change impacts, requiring innovative solutions for sustainable water management. The study was conducted to improve the long-term utilization of water resources in Andhra Pradesh. To accomplish this, the study attempts to estimate LULC change detection and its impact on water resources by analyzing the performance of the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model. From 2005 to 2021, the amount of cropland decreased while built-up land increased, indicating urban growth. The SWAT model identifies hydrological processes and assesses the temporal and spatial distribution of water resources in the watershed. Statistical parameters results reveal that a good match was found between actual and modeled flows with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R²) greater than 0.75 for both calibration and validation periods. The area has average annual precipitation, surface runoff, water yield, and actual evapotranspiration of 949.96, 215.6, 469.24, and 429.15 mm, respectively. The SWAT model's fascinating outcomes demonstrate that it could be a promising decision support tool for predicting water balance and water yield in other watersheds of Andhra Pradesh for sustainable water management of water resources where water quality and quantity are critical issues.