Changes of tropical cyclone size in three oceanic basins of the northern hemisphere from 2001 to 2021

IF 1.8 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
Banglin Zhang, Jeremy Cheuk-Hin Leung, Shengyuan Liu, Jianjun Xu
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Abstract

In this study the changes of tropical cyclone (TC) size from 2001 to 2021 are analyzed based on linear and quadratic curve fittings of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) / Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best track data, based on the radius of maximum wind (RMW) and the average radius of 34-kt wind (AR34), in three oceanic basins of the North Atlantic (NATL), the Western North Pacific (WPAC) and the Eastern North Pacific (EPAC). The computations are done separately for two categories of tropical cyclones: tropical storms (TS) and hurricanes (HT). Size changes of landfalling and non-landfalling TCs are also discussed. Results show that there is a great inter-basin variability among the changes in TC sizes. Major conclusions include: 1) overall, the inner cores of TSs have become larger in all three basins, with the increasing tendencies being significant in the NATL and WAPC, while those of HTs mostly get smaller or remain similar; 2) meanwhile, comparatively large inter-basin differences are observed for the TC outer core sizes, and the sizes of landfalling TCs; 3) particularly, a significant decrease in landfalling HT outer core size is observed over the EPAC; 4) in contrast, significant increases in landfalling TS inner core size are found over the NATL and WPAC. The presented analysis results could benefit future research about TC forecasts, storm surge studies, and the cyclone climate and its changes.

2001 至 2021 年北半球三个大洋盆地热带气旋规模的变化
本研究根据美国国家飓风中心(NHC)/台风联合警报中心(JTWC)的最佳路径数据,按照北大西洋(NATL)、北太平洋西部(WPAC)和北太平洋东部(EPAC)三个大洋盆地的最大风半径(RMW)和 34 kt 平均风半径(AR34),对 2001 年至 2021 年热带气旋(TC)的大小变化进行了线性和二次曲线拟合分析。计算分别针对两类热带气旋:热带风暴(TS)和飓风(HT)。还讨论了登陆和非登陆热带气旋的大小变化。结果表明,热带气旋的大小变化在流域间存在很大差异。主要结论包括1)总体而言,三个流域的TS内核都变大了,在NATL和WAPC有显著的增大趋势,而HT的内核大多变小或保持相似;2)同时,TC外核尺寸和登陆TC尺寸的流域间差异比较大;3)特别是在EPAC,登陆HT外核尺寸显著减小;4)相反,在NATL和WPAC,登陆TS内核尺寸显著增大。这些分析结果将有助于未来有关热带气旋预报、风暴潮研究和气旋气候及其变化的研究。
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来源期刊
Frontiers of Earth Science
Frontiers of Earth Science GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
3.50
自引率
5.00%
发文量
627
期刊介绍: Frontiers of Earth Science publishes original, peer-reviewed, theoretical and experimental frontier research papers as well as significant review articles of more general interest to earth scientists. The journal features articles dealing with observations, patterns, processes, and modeling of both innerspheres (including deep crust, mantle, and core) and outerspheres (including atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere) of the earth. Its aim is to promote communication and share knowledge among the international earth science communities
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