Was the COVID-19 epidemic synchronous in space? An analysis in the health regions of the Rio de Janeiro state, 2020-2022.

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the spatio-temporal dynamics of COVID-19 in the Rio de Janeiro state within the nine health regions, between March 2020 and December 2022.

Methods: The Poisson model with random effects was used to smooth and estimate the incidence of COVID-19 hospitalizations reported in the Influenza Epidemiological Surveillance Information System (SIVEP-Gripe) to verify the synchronicity of the epidemic in the state.

Results: The COVID-19 epidemic in the state is characterized by the presence of seven peaks during the analyzed period corresponding to seven found. An asynchrony in hospitalizations was identified, varying according to the different virus variants in the nine health regions of the state. The incidence peaks of hospitalizations ranged from 1 to 12 cases per 100,000 inhabitants during the pandemic.

Conclusion: This spatio-temporal analysis is applicable to other scenarios, enabling monitoring and decision-making for the control of epidemic diseases in different areas.