Cloud-Based Machine Learning Platform to Predict Clinical Outcomes at Home for Patients With Cardiovascular Conditions Discharged From Hospital: Clinical Trial.

Abstract

Background: Hospitalizations account for almost one-third of the US $4.1 trillion health care cost in the United States. A substantial portion of these hospitalizations are attributed to readmissions, which led to the establishment of the Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) in 2012. The HRRP reduces payments to hospitals with excess readmissions. In 2018, >US $700 million was withheld; this is expected to exceed US $1 billion by 2022. More importantly, there is nothing more physically and emotionally taxing for readmitted patients and demoralizing for hospital physicians, nurses, and administrators. Given this high uncertainty of proper home recovery, intelligent monitoring is needed to predict the outcome of discharged patients to reduce readmissions. Physical activity (PA) is one of the major determinants for overall clinical outcomes in diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, heart failure, cancer, and mental health issues. These are the exact comorbidities that increase readmission rates, underlining the importance of PA in assessing the recovery of patients by quantitative measurement beyond the questionnaire and survey methods.

Objective: This study aims to develop a remote, low-cost, and cloud-based machine learning (ML) platform to enable the precision health monitoring of PA, which may fundamentally alter the delivery of home health care. To validate this technology, we conducted a clinical trial to test the ability of our platform to predict clinical outcomes in discharged patients.

Methods: Our platform consists of a wearable device, which includes an accelerometer and a Bluetooth sensor, and an iPhone connected to our cloud-based ML interface to analyze PA remotely and predict clinical outcomes. This system was deployed at a skilled nursing facility where we collected >17,000 person-day data points over 2 years, generating a solid training database. We used these data to train our extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)-based ML environment to conduct a clinical trial, Activity Assessment of Patients Discharged from Hospital-I, to test the hypothesis that a comprehensive profile of PA would predict clinical outcome. We developed an advanced data-driven analytic platform that predicts the clinical outcome based on accurate measurements of PA. Artificial intelligence or an ML algorithm was used to analyze the data to predict short-term health outcome.

Results: We enrolled 52 patients discharged from Stanford Hospital. Our data demonstrated a robust predictive system to forecast health outcome in the enrolled patients based on their PA data. We achieved precise prediction of the patients' clinical outcomes with a sensitivity of 87%, a specificity of 79%, and an accuracy of 85%.

Conclusions: To date, there are no reliable clinical data, using a wearable device, regarding monitoring discharged patients to predict their recovery. We conducted a clinical trial to assess outcome data rigorously to be used reliably for remote home care by patients, health care professionals, and caretakers.