Estimation of Northern Burnt Forest Mortality in the 21st Century Based on MODIS Data on Fire Intensity

IF 0.6 4区物理与天体物理 Q4 ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS

Cosmic Research Pub Date : 2024-02-27 DOI:10.1134/s0010952523700600

D. V. Lozin, E. A. Loupian, I. V. Balashov, S. A. Bartalev

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Abstract

This paper presents estimates of forest mortality from fires that occurred in the northern territories in the 21st century, based on the analysis of fire burning intensity obtained from MODIS instruments installed on satellites Terra and Aqua. A brief analysis of fire distribution and forest mortality resulting therefrom is also presented in the paper both by year and by different territories (countries). The analysis shows that from 2002 to 2021, 70 659 fires were registered in Zone 60 (the area north of 60° N) and 5997 fires were registered in Zone AC (the area north of the Arctic Circle). Moreover, 33 892 fires in Zone 60 were registered from 2002 to 2011 and 36 767 fires from 2012 to 2021; 2395 fires were registered in Zone AC from 2001 to 2011 and 3602 fires from 2012 to 2021. Between 2002 and 2021, 102 million ha of forest land were covered by fires in Zone 60 and 8 million ha in Zone AC. At the same time, more than 22 million ha of forests died in Zone 60 (they received the fifth grade of the average weighted category state in the final fire year), and over 2 million ha died in Zone AC. Over 2002–2011, 7 015 000 ha of forests died in Zone 60 (1.2 % of all forest vegetation in the zone; an average of 19.6% of the area affected by fire) and 15 372 000 ha of forests over 2012–2021 (2.6 and 23.3%, respectively); over 2002–2011, 641 thousand ha of forests died in Zone AC (2.8 and 23.7%, respectively) and 1 379 000 ha of forests over 2012–2021 (1.9 and 26.5%, respectively). The paper also presents information on forest death by territories (countries) in the analyzed zones. The presented data made it possible to draw the following preliminary conclusions: over recent decades, there have been no significant changes in the number of fires in Zone 60. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that, in 2019–2020, the number of fires in Zone AC increased drastically in Russia; in the second decade of the analyzed period, an increase in forest death from fires in the analyzed zones in Russia was observed; over the study period, no trends were observed in the ratio of the area of dead forests and total forest area in the analyzed countries; the average percentage of dead forests for the entire study period is comparable in Russia, the United States, and Canada, though it is significantly lower in Northern European countries; the same picture is observed in the ratio of dead forest area and fire affected area.

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根据 MODIS 火灾强度数据估算 21 世纪北部烧毁森林的死亡率

摘要本文根据从安装在 Terra 和 Aqua 卫星上的 MODIS 仪器获得的火灾燃烧强度分析，对 21 世纪北部地区火灾造成的森林死亡率进行了估计。文中还按年份和不同地区（国家）简要分析了火灾分布情况以及由此造成的森林死亡率。分析表明，从 2002 年到 2021 年，60 区（北纬 60 度以北地区）发生了 70 659 起火灾，AC 区（北极圈以北地区）发生了 5 997 起火灾。此外，2002 年至 2011 年，60 区发生火灾 33 892 起，2012 年至 2021 年发生火灾 36 767 起；2001 年至 2011 年，AC 区发生火灾 2395 起，2012 年至 2021 年发生火灾 3602 起。2002 年至 2021 年间，60 区火灾覆盖的林地面积为 1.02 亿公顷，AC 区为 800 万公顷。与此同时，60 区有超过 2200 万公顷的森林死亡（它们在最后火灾年份的平均加权类别状态为五级），AC 区有超过 200 万公顷的森林死亡。2002-2011 年间，60 区有 7 015 000 公顷森林死亡（占该区所有森林植被的 1.2%；平均占火灾受灾面积的 19.6%），2012-2021 年间有 15 372 000 公顷森林死亡（分别占 2.6%和 23.3%）；2002-2011 年间，AC 区有 641 000 公顷森林死亡（分别占 2.8%和 23.7%），2012-2021 年间有 1 379 000 公顷森林死亡（分别占 1.9%和 26.5%）。本文还介绍了所分析区域内各地区（国家）的森林死亡信息。根据所提供的数据，可以得出以下初步结论：近几十年来，60 区的火灾数量没有发生重大变化。然而，值得注意的是，2019-2020 年，俄罗斯 AC 区的火灾次数急剧增加；在分析期的第二个十年，俄罗斯分析区火灾造成的森林死亡人数有所增加；在研究期内，分析国家死亡森林面积与森林总面积的比例没有变化趋势；在整个研究期间，俄罗斯、美国和加拿大的死亡森林平均比例相当，但北欧国家的死亡森林比例明显较低；死亡森林面积与受火灾影响面积的比例也是如此。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Cosmic Research 地学天文-工程：宇航

CiteScore

1.10

自引率

33.30%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Cosmic Research publishes scientific papers covering all subjects of space science and technology, including the following: ballistics, flight dynamics of the Earth’s artificial satellites and automatic interplanetary stations; problems of transatmospheric descent; design and structure of spacecraft and scientific research instrumentation; life support systems and radiation safety of manned spacecrafts; exploration of the Earth from Space; exploration of near space; exploration of the Sun, planets, secondary planets, and interplanetary medium; exploration of stars, nebulae, interstellar medium, galaxies, and quasars from spacecraft; and various astrophysical problems related to space exploration. A chronicle of scientific events and other notices concerning the main topics of the journal are also presented.