Inflation measurement in the presence of stockpiling and consumption smoothing

IF 1.9 3区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
Ludwig von Auer
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

A chained price index is said to suffer from chain drift bias if it indicates an overall price change, even though the prices and quantities in the current period have reverted back to their levels of the base period. The empirical relevance of this bias is well documented in studies that apply sub‐annual chaining to scanner data. There it is shown that stockpiling can lead to downward chain drift bias. The present paper draws attention to the fact that smoothing consumption causes substantial upward chain drift. In addition, this study introduces a stochastic simulation approach that is consistent with both, stockpiling and consumption smoothing. A “stress test” is conducted that examines whether rolling window variants of multilateral indices (GEKS, TPD, and GK) effectively curtail the chain drift problem.
存在储备和消费平滑情况下的通货膨胀测量
如果当期的价格和数量已恢复到基期的水平,但环比价格指数却显示出总体价格变化,则称该指数存在环比漂移偏差。对扫描数据采用次年度链式计算的研究充分证明了这种偏差的实证相关性。研究表明,囤积会导致环比向下漂移偏差。本文提请注意平滑消费会导致环比大幅上漂这一事实。此外,本研究还引入了一种随机模拟方法,该方法与囤积和消费平滑都是一致的。本文进行了一项 "压力测试",以检验多边指数(GEKS、TPD 和 GK)的滚动窗口变体是否能有效遏制环比漂移问题。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.00
自引率
10.00%
发文量
62
期刊介绍: The major objective of the Review of Income and Wealth is to advance knowledge on the definition, measurement and interpretation of national income, wealth and distribution. Among the issues covered are: - national and social accounting - microdata analyses of issues related to income and wealth and its distribution - the integration of micro and macro systems of economic, financial, and social statistics - international and intertemporal comparisons of income, wealth, inequality, poverty, well-being, and productivity - related problems of measurement and methodology
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