Incorporating Acute Conditions into Risk-Adjustment for Provider Profiling: The Case of the US News and World Report Best Hospitals Rankings Methodology.

Abstract

Several years ago, the US News and World Report changed their risk-adjustment methodology, now relying almost exclusively on chronic conditions for risk adjustment. The impacts of adding selected acute conditions like pneumonia, sepsis, and electrolyte disorders ("augmented") to their current risk models ("base") for 4 specialties-cardiology, neurology, oncology, and pulmonology-on estimates of hospital performance are reported here. In the augmented models, many acute conditions were associated with substantial risks of mortality. Compared to the base models, the discrimination and calibration of the augmented models for all specialties were improved. While estimated hospital performance was highly correlated between the 2 models, the inclusion of acute conditions in risk-adjustment models meaningfully improved the predictive ability of those models and had noticeable effects on hospital performance estimates. Measures or conditions that address disease severity should always be included when risk-adjusting hospitalization outcomes, especially if the goal is provider profiling.