A mathematical model for evaluating the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the early COVID-19 epidemic in the United Kingdom

IF 3.1 3区数学 Q1 MATHEMATICS

Advances in Difference Equations Pub Date : 2024-02-20 DOI:10.1186/s13662-024-03802-x

Hongyu Zhang, Shuanglin Jing

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Abstract

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) presents a severe and urgent threat to global health. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have implemented nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including national workplace and school closures, personal protection, social distancing, contact tracing, testing, home quarantine, and isolation. To evaluate the effectiveness of these NPIs in mitigating the spread of early COVID-19 and predict the epidemic trend in the United Kingdom, we developed a compartmental model to mimic the transmission with time-varying transmission rate, contact rate, disease-induced mortality rate, proportion of quarantined close contacts, and hospitalization rate. The model was fitted to the number of confirmed new cases and daily number of deaths in five stages with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. We quantified the effectiveness of NPIs and found that if the transmission rate, contact rate, and hospitalization rate were approximately equal to those in the second stage of the most strict NPIs, and the proportion of quarantined close contacts increased by 3%, then the epidemic would die out as early as January 12, 2021, with around 1,533,000 final cumulative number of confirmed cases, and around 55,610 final cumulative number of deaths.

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评估非药物干预措施对英国 COVID-19 早期流行影响的数学模型

2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）对全球健康构成了严重而紧迫的威胁。为应对 COVID-19 大流行，许多国家已实施了非药物干预措施（NPIs），包括关闭国家工作场所和学校、个人防护、社会疏远、接触追踪、检测、家庭隔离和隔离。为了评估这些 NPI 在减缓早期 COVID-19 传播方面的效果并预测英国的流行趋势，我们建立了一个分区模型，模拟传播率、接触率、疾病诱发死亡率、隔离密切接触者比例和住院率随时间变化的传播情况。该模型采用马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛方法，分五个阶段对确诊新病例数和每日死亡人数进行拟合。我们对 NPI 的有效性进行了量化，发现如果传播率、接触率和住院率与最严格 NPI 的第二阶段大致相同，且隔离密切接触者的比例增加 3%，那么疫情最早将于 2021 年 1 月 12 日消亡，最终累计确诊病例数约为 153.3 万例，最终累计死亡人数约为 55610 人。

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来源期刊

Advances in Difference Equations MATHEMATICS, APPLIED-MATHEMATICS

CiteScore

8.60

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： The theory of difference equations, the methods used, and their wide applications have advanced beyond their adolescent stage to occupy a central position in applicable analysis. In fact, in the last 15 years, the proliferation of the subject has been witnessed by hundreds of research articles, several monographs, many international conferences, and numerous special sessions. The theory of differential and difference equations forms two extreme representations of real world problems. For example, a simple population model when represented as a differential equation shows the good behavior of solutions whereas the corresponding discrete analogue shows the chaotic behavior. The actual behavior of the population is somewhere in between. The aim of Advances in Difference Equations is to report mainly the new developments in the field of difference equations, and their applications in all fields. We will also consider research articles emphasizing the qualitative behavior of solutions of ordinary, partial, delay, fractional, abstract, stochastic, fuzzy, and set-valued differential equations. Advances in Difference Equations will accept high-quality articles containing original research results and survey articles of exceptional merit.