How activist investors value target firms: Evidence from hedge fund presentations

Abstract

This research study provides insights on how activist hedge funds perform valuation analyses of target firms. Relevant data was hand‐collected from a sample of activist hedge fund presentations. Based on the hedge funds’ valuation analyses, the undervaluation of the target firms amounts to approximately 30%, compared to the targets’ current share price. Besides, activist investors derive a value enhancement potential from their proposed strategies of approximately 70% to the targets’ current share price. These valuation results rely predominately on trading multiples. The dominant multiples are Enterprise value/EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) and Price/Earnings (P/E). Further, applied multiples are mainly forward‐looking, and the predicted performance measures are primarily consensus estimates. Besides, hedge funds sometimes adjust multiples arbitrarily to increase the comparability. Our results confirm that short‐term investors rely predominately on pricing analyses in their valuations.