Impact of Assimilation of the Tropical Cyclone Strong Winds Observed by Synthetic Aperture Radar on Analyses and Forecasts

Abstract

A few high-wind observations have been obtained from satellites over the ocean around tropical cyclones (TCs), but the impact of data assimilation of such observations over the sea on forecasting has not been clear. The spaceborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) provides high-resolution and wide-area ocean surface wind speed data around the center of a TC. In this study, the impact of data assimilation of the ocean surface wind speed of SAR (OWSAR) on regional model forecasts was investigated. The assimilated data were estimated from SAR onboard Sentinel-1 and RADARSAT-2. The bias of OWSAR depends on wind speed, the observation error variance depends on wind speed and incidence angle, and the spatial observation error correlation depends on the incidence angle. The observed OWSAR is screened using the variational quality control method with the Huber norm. In the case of Typhoon Hagibis (2019), OWSAR assimilation modified the TC low-level inflow, which also modified the TC upper-level outflow. The propagation of this OWSAR assimilation effect from the surface to the upper troposphere was given by a four-dimensional variational method that searches for the optimal solution within strong constraints on the time evolution of the forecast model. Statistical validation confirmed that errors in the TC intensity forecast decreased over lead times of 15 h, but this was not statistically significant. The validation using wind profiler observations showed that OWSAR assimilation significantly improved the accuracy of wind speed predictions from the middle to the upper-level of the troposphere.