Prediction of suitable areas and division of key monitoring zones for Solidago canadensis in Guizhou Province, China

Abstract

Comprehending invasive alien species’ potential habitat area and spread trend are of great importance for effective prevention and control strategy and prevention of spread. However, previous studies have mainly been based on large regional scales (national or global level). Research on the smaller regional scale of ecologically fragile karst makes the prevention and control measures more feasible and targeted. For invasive Solidago canadensis, based on an MaxEnt model and ArcGIS, we determined its current and future potential distributions. The main drivers of S. canadensis distribution were precipitation changes and human activities. S. canadensis occurrence probability initially increased, and then decreased with increased precipitation variables, and increased rapidly initially, then gradually with increasing human footprint. Under current climate conditions, S. canadensis suitable area is 8.13×104 km2, with the highly suitable area concentrated in Guiyang, east of Bijie, Zunyi, Anshun and Duyun. Under climate conditions of the 2050s, the suitable area drops slightly to 8.00×104 km2. Under climate conditions of the 2070s, the suitable area expands to 8.31×104 km2. And move toward the south within the study area. Based on the modelling and space optimization software ZONATION key monitoring area covers 79,857 km2, including a primary monitoring area mainly distributed in Guiyang, east of Bijie, northeast of Anshun and northwest of Duyun, a secondary monitoring area mainly outside the primary monitoring area, and a third-level monitoring area widely distributed in Zunyi, Tongren, Duyun, west of Kaili and Anshun and east of Bijie. Linking our results with this specie’s invasive power, we thus recommended to increase the prevention and control sites in the first-level monitoring area, and continue to pay attention to the risk of the southward spread of this species.