Map-based ensemble forecasts for maritime operations: An interactive usability assessment with decision scenarios

Abstract

Previous research indicates that forecast uncertainty can, in certain formats and decision contexts, provide actionable insights that help users in their decision making. However, how to best disseminate forecast uncertainty, which factors affect successful uptake, and how forecast uncertainty transforms into better decision making remains an ongoing topic for discussion in both academic and operational contexts. Interpreting and using visualizations of forecast uncertainty are not straightforward, and choosing how to represent uncertainty in forecast products should be dependent on the specific audience in mind. We present findings from an interactive stakeholder workshop which aimed to advance context-based insights on the usability of graphical representations of forecast uncertainty in the field of maritime operations. The workshop involved participants from various maritime sectors, including cruise tourism, fisheries, government, private forecast service providers, and research/academia. Geographically situated in Norway, the workshop employed sea spray icing as a use-case for various decision scenario exercises, using both fixed probability and fixed threshold formats, supplemented with temporal ensemble diagrams. Accumulated operational expertise and characteristics of the forecast information itself, such as color coding and different forms of forecast uncertainty visualizations, were found to affect perceptions of decision-making quality. Findings can inform co-design processes of translating ensemble forecasts into usable and useful public and commercial forecast information services. The collaborative nature of the workshop facilitated knowledge sharing and co-production between forecast providers and users. Overall, the study highlights the importance of incorporating methodological approaches that consider the complex and dynamic operational contexts of ensemble-based forecast provision, communication, and use.