To Dip or Not to Dip? A Comment on Kyer and Maggs (2019)

Abstract

In a 2019 article published in this journal, Kyer and Maggs examined the frequency and characteristics of double-dip recessions and multi-dip recessions for 21 countries during the 1960:1 to 2014:4 period. A review of Kyer and Maggs generated a number of questions about a particular feature of their business cycle dating methodology. Specifically, they determined that a recession ends once real gross domestic product returns to or exceeds the previous peak level of real gross domestic product. To demonstrate the impact this nontraditional feature of their methodology has on their results and conclusions, this paper repeats their analysis where, in contrast to Kyer and Maggs, it is assumed that a recession ends once the economy reaches the trough quarter in a business cycle. The application of this more traditional feature of business cycle dating methodology to the same countries and sample period yields results that do not support their conclusions about either the frequency of double-dip recessions or the number of countries in their sample that experienced multi-dip recessions. This paper first shows that double-dip recessions represent just 7.2% of all recessions and, therefore, are not as common as Kyer and Maggs reported. Second, only five of the 21 countries experienced recessions with two or more additional dips in economic activity over the entire sample period. Finally, only six countries experienced a multi-dip recession during the Great Recession.