A simulation model to analyze the behavior of a faculty retirement plan: a case study in Mexico

IF 1 4区数学 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY

Computational Statistics Pub Date : 2024-02-09 DOI:10.1007/s00180-024-01456-7

Marco Antonio Montufar-Benítez, Jaime Mora-Vargas, Carlos Arturo Soto-Campos, Gilberto Pérez-Lechuga, José Raúl Castro-Esparza

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Abstract

The main goal in this study was to determine confidence intervals for average age, average seniority, and average money-savings, for faculty members in a university retirement system using a simulation model. The simulation—built-in Arena—considers age, seniority, and the probability of continuing in the institution as the main input random variables in the model. An annual interest rate of 7% and an average annual salary increase of 3% were considered. The scenario simulated consisted of the teacher and the university making contributions, the faculty 5% of his salary, and the university 5% of the teacher’s salary. Since the base salaries with which teachers join to university are variable, we considered a monthly salary of MXN 23 181.2, corresponding to full-time teachers with middle salaries. The results obtained by a simulation of 30 replicates showed that the confidence intervals for the average age at retirement were (55.0, 55.2) years, for the average seniority (22.1, 22.3) years, and for the average savings amount (329 795.2, 341 287.0) MXN. Moreover, the risk that a retiree of 62 years of age and more of 25 years of work, is alive after his savings runs out is approximately 98% and this happens at 64 years of age.

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分析教师退休计划行为的模拟模型：墨西哥案例研究

本研究的主要目标是利用一个模拟模型，确定一所大学退休制度中教师的平均年龄、平均年资和平均资金储蓄的置信区间。该模拟内置竞技场，将年龄、工龄和继续在该机构工作的概率作为模型的主要输入随机变量。年利率为 7%，年平均工资增长率为 3%。模拟的方案包括教师和大学缴费，教师缴费额为其工资的 5%，大学缴费额为教师工资的 5%。由于教师进入大学时的基本工资是不固定的，我们考虑了月薪为 23 181.2 马新西兰元的情况，相当于中等工资的全职教师。30 次重复模拟的结果显示，平均退休年龄的置信区间为（55.0，55.2）岁，平均工龄的置信区间为（22.1，22.3）年，平均储蓄额的置信区间为（329 795.2，341 287.0）马币。此外，年满 62 岁且工作年限超过 25 年的退休人员在其储蓄用完后仍然活着的风险约为 98%，这种情况发生在 64 岁。

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来源期刊

Computational Statistics 数学-统计学与概率论

CiteScore

2.90

自引率

0.00%

发文量

122

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Computational Statistics (CompStat) is an international journal which promotes the publication of applications and methodological research in the field of Computational Statistics. The focus of papers in CompStat is on the contribution to and influence of computing on statistics and vice versa. The journal provides a forum for computer scientists, mathematicians, and statisticians in a variety of fields of statistics such as biometrics, econometrics, data analysis, graphics, simulation, algorithms, knowledge based systems, and Bayesian computing. CompStat publishes hardware, software plus package reports.