Forecasting Ice Jam Peak Levels of the Sukhona River near Veliky Ustyug

IF 1.4 4区地球科学 Q4 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI:10.3103/s1068373923120063

M. V. Georgievskii, A. V. Babkin, N. I. Goroshkova, A. V. Strizhenok, D. A. Semenova

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The paper presents the analysis, modeling, and forecasting of the time series of the ice jam peak water level of the Sukhona River near Veliky Ustyug, taking into account the predictors selected by the multiple regression technique. A methodology based on the multiple regression that uses the results of modeling by the method developed by V.A. Buzin as a separate predictor is proposed. This approach has improved the forecast skill and forecast results. The observed and predicted values are significantly correlated.

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预测大乌斯秋格附近苏霍纳河的冰塞高峰水位

摘要本文介绍了对大乌斯秋格附近苏霍纳河冰塞峰值水位时间序列的分析、建模和预测，其中考虑到了通过多元回归技术选择的预测因子。提出了一种基于多元回归的方法，将 V.A. Buzin 开发的方法建模结果作为单独的预测因子。这种方法提高了预测技能和预测结果。观测值和预测值之间存在明显的相关性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES-

CiteScore

1.70

自引率

28.60%

发文量

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Russian Meteorology and Hydrology is a peer reviewed journal that covers topical issues of hydrometeorological science and practice: methods of forecasting weather and hydrological phenomena, climate monitoring issues, environmental pollution, space hydrometeorology, agrometeorology.