{"title":"Making sense of breast cancer risk estimates","authors":"John O'Quigley","doi":"10.1002/gepi.22550","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Individual probabilistic assessments on the risk of cancer, primary or secondary, will not be understood by most patients. That is the essence of our arguments in this paper. Greater understanding can be achieved by extensive, intensive, and detailed counseling. But since probability itself is a concept that easily escapes our everyday intuition—consider the famous Monte Hall paradox—then it would also be wise to advise patients and potential patients, to not put undue weight on any probabilistic assessment. Such assessments can be of value to the epidemiologist in the investigation of different potential etiologies describing cancer evolution or to the clinical trialist as a way to maximize design efficiency. But to an ordinary individual we cannot anticipate that these assessments will be correctly interpreted.</p>","PeriodicalId":12710,"journal":{"name":"Genetic Epidemiology","volume":"48 3","pages":"141-147"},"PeriodicalIF":1.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Genetic Epidemiology","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/gepi.22550","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"GENETICS & HEREDITY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Individual probabilistic assessments on the risk of cancer, primary or secondary, will not be understood by most patients. That is the essence of our arguments in this paper. Greater understanding can be achieved by extensive, intensive, and detailed counseling. But since probability itself is a concept that easily escapes our everyday intuition—consider the famous Monte Hall paradox—then it would also be wise to advise patients and potential patients, to not put undue weight on any probabilistic assessment. Such assessments can be of value to the epidemiologist in the investigation of different potential etiologies describing cancer evolution or to the clinical trialist as a way to maximize design efficiency. But to an ordinary individual we cannot anticipate that these assessments will be correctly interpreted.
期刊介绍：
Genetic Epidemiology is a peer-reviewed journal for discussion of research on the genetic causes of the distribution of human traits in families and populations. Emphasis is placed on the relative contribution of genetic and environmental factors to human disease as revealed by genetic, epidemiological, and biologic investigations.
Genetic Epidemiology primarily publishes papers in statistical genetics, a research field that is primarily concerned with development of statistical, bioinformatical, and computational models for analyzing genetic data. Incorporation of underlying biology and population genetics into conceptual models is favored. The Journal seeks original articles comprising either applied research or innovative statistical, mathematical, computational, or genomic methodologies that advance studies in genetic epidemiology. Other types of reports are encouraged, such as letters to the editor, topic reviews, and perspectives from other fields of research that will likely enrich the field of genetic epidemiology.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
