A CMIP6-based assessment of regional climate change in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains

IF 2.7 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Xinyu Liu, Xuemei Li, Zhengrong Zhang, Kaixin Zhao, Lanhai Li
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Climate warming profoundly affects hydrological changes, agricultural production, and human society. Arid and semi-arid areas of China are currently displaying a marked trend of warming and wetting. The Chinese Tianshan Mountains (CTM) have a high climate sensitivity, rendering the region particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate warming. In this study, we used monthly average temperature and monthly precipitation data from the CN05.1 gridded dataset (1961–2014) and 24 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to assess the applicability of the CMIP6 GCMs in the CTM at the regional scale. Based on this, we conducted a systematic review of the interannual trends, dry–wet transitions (based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI)), and spatial distribution patterns of climate change in the CTM during 1961–2014. We further projected future temperature and precipitation changes over three terms (near-term (2021–2040), mid-term (2041–2060), and long-term (2081–2100)) relative to the historical period (1961–2014) under four shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5). It was found that the CTM had experienced significant warming and wetting from 1961 to 2014, and will also experience warming in the future (2021–2100). Substantial warming in 1997 was captured by both the CN05.1 derived from interpolating meteorological station data and the multi-model ensemble (MME) from the CMIP6 GCMs. The MME simulation results indicated an apparent wetting in 2008, which occurred later than the wetting observed from the CN05.1 in 1989. The GCMs generally underestimated spring temperature and overestimated both winter temperature and spring precipitation in the CTM. Warming and wetting are more rapid in the northern part of the CTM. By the end of the 21st century, all the four SSP scenarios project warmer and wetter conditions in the CTM with multiple dry–wet transitions. However, the rise in precipitation fails to counterbalance the drought induced by escalating temperature in the future, so the nature of the drought in the CTM will not change at all. Additionally, the projected summer precipitation shows negative correlation with the radiative forcing. This study holds practical implications for the awareness of climate change and subsequent research in the CTM.

基于 CMIP6 的中国天山区域气候变化评估
气候变暖深刻影响着水文变化、农业生产和人类社会。目前,中国的干旱和半干旱地区正呈现出明显的变暖和湿润趋势。中国天山山脉(CTM)具有较高的气候敏感性,因此该地区特别容易受到气候变暖的影响。在本研究中,我们利用 CN05.1 网格数据集(1961-2014 年)的月平均气温和月降水量数据,以及耦合模式相互比较项目第六阶段(CMIP6)的 24 个全球气候模式(GCMs),评估了 CMIP6 GCMs 在区域尺度上对中国天山地区的适用性。在此基础上,我们对 1961-2014 年间 CTM 中气候变化的年际趋势、干湿转换(基于标准化降水指数 (SPI))和空间分布模式进行了系统回顾。相对于历史时期(1961-2014 年),我们进一步预测了四种共同社会经济路径(SSP)情景(即 SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0 和 SSP5-8.5)下三个时期(近期(2021-2040 年)、中期(2041-2060 年)和长期(2081-2100 年))的未来气温和降水变化。研究发现,从 1961 年到 2014 年,CTM 经历了显著的变暖和湿润,未来(2021-2100 年)也将经历变暖。根据气象站数据内插得出的 CN05.1 和 CMIP6 全球气候模式的多模式集合(MME)都捕捉到了 1997 年的显著变暖。多模型模拟结果表明,2008 年出现了明显的湿润,其发生时间晚于 CN05.1 在 1989 年观测到的湿润。在 CTM 中,GCMs 普遍低估了春季气温,高估了冬季气温和春季降水。CTM 北部地区的变暖和湿润更为迅速。到 21 世纪末,所有四种 SSP 情景都预测 CTM 的气候条件会变暖和变湿,并出现多次干湿转换。然而,降水量的增加并不能抵消未来温度升高引起的干旱,因此 CTM 干旱的性质不会发生任何改变。此外,预测的夏季降水量与辐射强迫呈负相关。这项研究对气候变化的认识和后续 CTM 研究具有实际意义。
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来源期刊
Journal of Arid Land
Journal of Arid Land ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-
CiteScore
4.70
自引率
6.70%
发文量
768
审稿时长
3.2 months
期刊介绍: The Journal of Arid Land is an international peer-reviewed journal co-sponsored by Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Science Press. It aims to meet the needs of researchers, students and practitioners in sustainable development and eco-environmental management, focusing on the arid and semi-arid lands in Central Asia and the world at large. The Journal covers such topics as the dynamics of natural resources (including water, soil and land, organism and climate), the security and sustainable development of natural resources, and the environment and the ecology in arid and semi-arid lands, especially in Central Asia. Coverage also includes interactions between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, and lithosphere, and the relationship between these natural processes and human activities. Also discussed are patterns of geography, ecology and environment; ecological improvement and environmental protection; and regional responses and feedback mechanisms to global change. The Journal of Arid Land also presents reviews, brief communications, trends and book reviews of work on these topics.
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